Employment Outlook (Projections)
Methodology
Employment Outlook (Projections) Methodology
To avoid misinterpretation of the employment projections, please note the following limitations:
The projections measure occupational demand only. When exploring career options, employment projections are most useful when used with other types of data, such as supply of workers in a particular occupation, educational requirements, wages, etc.
Employment refers to the number of jobs (including both full-time and part-time), not the number of employed persons. Since some people work at more than one job, fewer persons will be employed than the number of jobs listed.
Growth/decline is not expected to be constant over the 10-year period. For some industries or occupations, significant growth or decline may have already occurred early in the projections period.
Projections are more reliable the broader the industry or occupational categories and less reliable as the industries or occupations become increasingly detailed.
Movement of a large or dominant corporation into or out of the state, which cannot be reliably predicted, could greatly alter employment levels within an industry and invalidate the projections for that industry.
Net replacement openings estimate the difference between the movement of experienced workers who change jobs to enter other occupations, retire, or leave the workforce for other reasons and the movement of experienced workers filling the openings.
The openings that remain unfilled by experienced workers are net replacement openings, available to new workforce entrants. In most occupations, net replacement openings significantly understate the total number of job openings because net replacement openings measure the difference between the number of workers in the workforce who leave an occupation and the number who enter the occupation.
Despite these limitations, the projections in this report represent an extensive and valuable data base for those interested in future employment patterns. This report can be useful for identifying areas of growth or decline, especially relative magnitudes of occupational employment changes. However, the projections are not intended to be precise point estimates of employment for each industry or occupation.
Parameters and Assumptions
Minnesota industry and occupational employment projections rely heavily on national industry and occupational employment projections produced by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS produces nationwide employment projections every other year. Minnesota projections are based on Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) national projections, which can be found at http://www.bls.gov/emp/home.htm.
Industry Projections
The main steps in preparing industry projections included:
1. Estimating 2009 base year employment figures for all industries at the four-digit North American Industrial Classification (NAICS) level: Industry employment figures were based primarily on data from Minnesota’s Covered Employment and Wages (CEW) program and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. Estimates for agricultural-related employment not covered in the above programs, self-employed workers, and private household workers were derived from 2000 Census, 2009 Current Population Survey (CPS), and 2008 American Community Survey data. Total projection employment for 2009 was 2,837,000 compared to 2,731,688 for LAUS household employment, 2,571,871 for QCEW employment, and 2,650,106 for CES employment in 2009.
2. Projecting 2019 employment levels for approximately 290 industries. Linear regression models were used to forecast employment for most of the industries. Since Minnesota follows many of the same trends as the United States, a common variable used in the models was U.S. employment in the equivalent industry. Other Minnesota-specific variables included employment in related industries, population, personal income, labor force, and school enrollment Initial projections were reviewed by internal and external experts and adjusted as deemed appropriate.
Occupational Projections
Occupational projections were prepared using the Microcomputer Industry/Occupation Matrix processing system developed by the Utah Department of Employment Security, the National Occupational Information Coordinating Committee (NOICC), the Interstate Conference of Employment Security Agencies (ICESA), the National Governor’s Association (NGA) and the BLS. The major steps in preparing occupational projections included the following:
1. Determining an occupational staffing pattern for each detailed industry: Staffing patterns (the distribution of occupations by industry) were based on the 2009 Occupational Employment Statistic (OES) survey. In cases where response to the survey was low or missing in a particular industry, national staffing patterns or patterns from earlier OES surveys were used. The distribution of occupations in industries not covered by the OES survey were derived from 2000 Census data modified with 2008 American Community Survey data.
2. Creating a 2009 base year industry/occupation matrix: The occupational staffing pattern for each industry was proportionally adjusted to equal the 2009 base year employment figure for that industry.
3. Developing a 2019 projected year industry/occupation matrix: The BLS provided national occupational change factors (the projected change in the distribution of occupations within an industry between 2009 and 2019). These change factors were applied to the 2009 base year matrix, resulting in a new occupational staffing pattern for each industry. These new staffing patterns were then proportionally adjusted to equal 2019 projected employment by industry.
4. Calculating an estimate for net replacements between 2009 and 2019 for each occupation, based on replacement rates developed by the BLS: National replacement data is available http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_110.htm