Job Vacancy Survey
Future Hiring by Region
Minnesota's Job Vacancy Survey asks employers to report their plans to maintain or change current employment levels over the six months following the fourth quarter 2012:
- Of employers surveyed, 12.6 percent expect to increase employment levels, up about 1.6 percentage points since fourth quarter 2011.
- The majority of employers, 82.5 percent, expect their employment levels to remain the same.
- The remaining 4.9 percent plan to decrease from their current employment levels. This number is down 6.8 percentage points from fourth quarter 2011.
Table 1
|
Future Hiring by Region, Fourth Quarter 2012
|
| |
Increase
Employment
|
Employment
Constant
|
Decrease
Employment
|
|
Minnesota
|
12.6%
|
82.5%
|
4.9%
|
|
Greater Minnesota
|
11.7%
|
81.5%
|
6.8%
|
|
Twin Cities
|
13.5%
|
83.3%
|
3.2%
|
| |
|
|
|
|
Region 1 - Northwest
|
7.2%
|
89.5%
|
3.3%
|
|
Region 2 - Headwaters
|
17.0%
|
79.1%
|
3.9%
|
|
Region 3 - Northeast
|
18.0%
|
69.0%
|
13.0%
|
|
Region 4 - West Central
|
15.0%
|
82.4%
|
2.6%
|
|
Region 5 - North Central
|
10.2%
|
80.6%
|
9.2%
|
|
Region 6E - Southwest Central
|
9.1%
|
85.6%
|
5.3%
|
|
Region 6W - Upper Southwest
|
5.1%
|
82.6%
|
12.4%
|
|
Region 7E - East Central
|
7.3%
|
86.7%
|
6.0%
|
|
Region 7W - Central
|
6.2%
|
88.1%
|
5.7%
|
|
Region 8 - Southwest
|
5.8%
|
87.7%
|
6.5%
|
|
Region 9 - South Central
|
8.4%
|
87.5%
|
4.1%
|
|
Region 10 - Southeast
|
17.1%
|
74.5%
|
8.4%
|
|
Region 11 - Twin Cities
|
13.5%
|
80.7%
|
9.4%
|
Table 1e shows employer hiring plans by region 1]. These can be translated into a diffusion index as in Figure 1e. A diffusion index over 50 percent indicates that employers in the region plan to add employment overall, while a diffusion index under 50 percent indicates employers in the region plan to decrease employment. At 53.9, the index indicates that overall employers plan to add jobs over the next 6 months. Moreover, 11 of the 13 regions have an index score above 50 meaning that employers anticipate employment increases to be geographically widespread. The Twin Cities index, at 55.2, is up 4.0 percent compared to one year ago. Twin Cities employers are, on average, much more positive about future hiring plans than rural Minnesota employers. Overall, the statewide index is up 4.3 percentage points from one year ago.
Future Hiring by Industry and Region
Table 2e below provides a breakdown of employer hiring expectations by industry while Figure 2e is a graph of the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry. Statewide, employers in the following industries are the most optimistic about increasing employment during the next six months: Professional, Science, and Technical Service, Transportation and Warehousing, Management, and Manufacturing. Five industries, Mining, Construction, Arts and Entertainment, Utilities, and Agriculture, are anticipating a decrease in hiring during the next six months, with a diffusion index of less than 50 percent.
Table 2e
|
Future Hiring by Industries in Minnesota,
Fourth Quarter 2012
|
|
|
Increase
Employment
|
Employment
Constant
|
Decrease
Employment
|
|
Agriculture
|
7.3%
|
84.3%
|
8.4%
|
|
Mining
|
8.3%
|
69.7%
|
22.0%
|
|
Utilities
|
6.4%
|
82.9%
|
10.7%
|
|
Construction
|
9.6%
|
79.1%
|
11.3%
|
|
Manufacturing
|
15.4%
|
79.0%
|
5.6%
|
|
Wholesale Trade
|
9.8%
|
86.8%
|
3.4%
|
|
Retail Trade
|
13.0%
|
81.4%
|
5.6%
|
|
Transportation and Warehousing
|
19.5%
|
73.4%
|
7.1%
|
|
Information
|
7.5%
|
87.7%
|
4.9%
|
|
Finance and Insurance
|
9.8%
|
87.7%
|
2.6%
|
|
Real Estate
|
3.1%
|
94.0%
|
2.9%
|
|
Prof., Sci., and Technical Svcs.
|
31.9%
|
65.8%
|
2.4%
|
|
Management
|
16.7%
|
81.0%
|
2.4%
|
|
Administration and Support
|
11.1%
|
85.3%
|
3.5%
|
|
Educational Services
|
8.5%
|
88.1%
|
3.4%
|
|
Healthcare
|
12.4%
|
84.2%
|
3.4%
|
|
Arts and Entertainment
|
7.3%
|
81.8%
|
10.9%
|
|
Accommodation
|
13.5%
|
80.5%
|
6.0%
|
|
Other Services
|
5.5%
|
91.9%
|
2.6%
|
|
Public Administration
|
3.8%
|
92.7%
|
3.6%
|
For future hiring statistics by industry in Greater Minnesota or the Twin Cities, please download the following tables:
For Greater Minnesota, please see Table 3e. (MS Excel file)
For the Twin Cities, please see Table 4e. (MS Excel file)
Figure 3e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by industry in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.
Future Hiring by Firm Size and Region
The following table presents hiring expectations by firm size for Minnesota, Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.
Table 5e
|
Future Hiring by Firm Size, Fourth Quarter 2012
|
|
|
Increase
Employment
|
Employment
Constant
|
Decrease
Employment
|
|
Minnesota
|
|
|
|
|
Very Small
|
8.4%
|
87.5%
|
4.1%
|
|
Small
|
19.5%
|
74.1%
|
6.4%
|
|
Medium
|
25.2%
|
67.6%
|
7.2%
|
|
Large
|
32.4%
|
64.3%
|
3.4%
|
|
Greater Minnesota
|
|
|
|
|
Very Small
|
8.9%
|
84.3%
|
6.8%
|
|
Small
|
16.0%
|
76.7%
|
7.3%
|
|
Medium
|
26.1%
|
68.3%
|
5.5%
|
|
Large
|
25.8%
|
68.0%
|
6.2%
|
|
Twin Cities
|
|
|
|
|
Very Small
|
7.9%
|
90.7%
|
1.4%
|
|
Small
|
22.2%
|
72.0%
|
5.8%
|
|
Medium
|
24.5%
|
67.1%
|
8.3%
|
|
Large
|
35.9%
|
62.3%
|
1.8%
|
Figure 4e graphs the diffusion index of future employment expansion or contraction by firm size and region. During the six month period following the fourth quarter 2012 medium and large employers report being more likely to increase their workforce than small and very small firms. As they tend to offer better wage and benefits packages this is a good sign for those looking for work. The trend for larger firms to have higher diffusion indexes has been continuing for the past two years now.
1]The diffusion index is constructed so that if all firms report that they expected to expand, the index would equal 100. If all report that they expect to contract, the index would be zero. If the percent of firms that expect to expand just equaled the percent of firms that expect to contract (regardless of the percent expecting to remain constant), the index would equal 50. Thus, a value of 50 represents the threshold between expectations of contraction and expansion.
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