Changes in Current Employment Statistics

By Amanda Rohrer
June 2010

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The program is producing a new data series that is more comprehensive than in the past.

The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program historically has conducted monthly surveys to provide a snapshot of the economy, including estimated employment and average hours and earnings for workers in selected nonfarm industries. The data, which are available monthly for the country, each state and 250 metropolitan areas, are viewed as an important economic indicator by U.S. policymakers and the financial sector.

The hours and earnings data were somewhat limited in the past, however, because they only included production workers in selected goods-producing industries. Starting in March, the CES data series was expanded to cover hours and earnings for all employees in selected private-sector industries (see Table 1 for a list of the industries expected to be covered by the survey).

The new all-employee hours and earnings series is more comprehensive than previous CES data and offers improved information for analyzing economic trends and constructing major economic indicators. States began producing the new estimates in 2008, with experimental retroactive historical estimates available since January 2007. But the new data were not made official nationwide until March 2010, after enough time had passed to ensure the quality of the estimates.

Why the Change?

When the initial decision was made to produce CES hours and earnings data for production workers, a much larger proportion of workers was directly engaged in manufacturing. 

Now that more of the economic activity is driven by service industries and knowledge workers, reporting only for production workers is less useful. Moreover, the distinction between production and nonproduction workers is harder to make. The addition of all-employee hours and earnings data should be easier to use and produce than production workers data alone.

Using the Data

The CES program is one of two sources of wage data by industry available for Minnesota. The other, which is unaffected by this change, is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). While the QCEW makes average wage data available for all industries and draws from a larger number of employers, the data are published less frequently and with a greater span between the reference period and the publication date.

In times of boom or bust, timely information on the economy is crucial for decision-making. The CES estimates serve as an early and more current indicator, though not as detailed.

There are differences in what the two programs cover that affect the average wages. The types of employees counted vary slightly, and the QCEW counts irregular annual bonuses, while the CES does not.

Other than the differences caused by methodology, the two indicators suggest similar trends. Figure 1 compares the CES data produced to date (averaged quarterly, to make it more comparable) with the QCEW data. Since annual bonuses are typically paid at the end or beginning of the year, the QCEW trend has peaks during those time frames that are not seen in the CES data.

All-employee wage data also can be more volatile than production worker wage data because of differences in the styles of compensation. For example, production workers typically receive their compensation in the form of an hourly wage, keeping their incomes closely tied to their hours worked. For financial or sales workers, income may be more dependent on monthly bonuses or commissions. Salaried workers may have set compensation but volatility in their hours; if it’s not possible to determine their actual hours, companies are advised to list standard weekly hours, meaning that real hourly earnings may be more variable than indicated.  Because of these differences in compensation patterns, there may be month-to-month irregularities in wage data, but overall trends are reliable.

To use Current Employment Statistics all-employment hours and earnings data, please use our CES Web tool at www.PositivelyMinnesota.com/ces. 

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