Metro Planning Region: Matching People to Jobs

By Rachel Vilsack
June 2011

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The Twin Cities has a well-educated and diverse workforce, but an anticipated 500,000 openings through 2019 will challenge employers to find workers with the right education, skills, and experience.

The 2010 population census offers a glimpse of how the Twin Cities has evolved over the past decade. These data along with long-term employment projections also provide insight into the future labor market: Where are the jobs and how will businesses find the workers they need?

Meet Your New Neighbors

The Twin Cities reached a population of 2.85 million in 2010, growing by nearly 8 percent during the past decade (see Table 1). Six of the seven Twin Cities counties added population between 2000 and 2010, with Scott County and Carver County leading the way. In fact, Scott County was the fastest-growing county in Minnesota.

As a region, the Twin Cities had only average population growth between 2000 and 2010. But the region stands out as the most diverse in Minnesota. Overall, the minority population grew by 232,820 residents in the Twin Cities, or 52.5 percent, between 2000 and 2010. In 2010 about 8.2 percent of the region’s population was black, 6.5 percent was Asian, and 5.9 percent was Hispanic.[1]

During the past decade, all Twin Cities counties have seen growth in the minority population (see Figure 1).[2] Minority populations doubled in Scott, Anoka, and Washington counties in the last 10 years. Nearly one in four Twin Cities residents were members of a minority group in 2010. Ramsey (33.1 percent) and Hennepin counties (28.3 percent) have the highest concentrations of minority residents in the region, and rank second and fourth, respectively, for the largest concentrations of minority residents statewide.

Why Population Matters

Population growth is a key indicator of a healthy economy. Beyond the increased demand for goods and services that an expanding population requires, the local population also fills workforce needs for businesses. So future labor force growth depends on expansion of the working-age population and the proportion of the population (age 16 and older) that is employed or actively seeking work. While the recession has discouraged some workers — people who are not looking for employment or available for work are not counted in official unemployment rates — participation in the labor force remained relatively strong. In 2009 the Minneapolis-St. Paul region had the second-highest labor force participation rate (72.5 percent) among the 30 largest U.S. metropolitan areas.[3]

And the Twin Cities labor force is projected to expand in the coming decade. According to the State Demographic Center, the number of Twin Cities residents in the labor force will increase by 87,640, or 5.2 percent, between 2010 and 2020.

A growing regional labor force will be essential for long-term economic growth. Employment estimates for the Twin Cites project an increase of 144,100 jobs between 2009 and 2019, a growth rate of 8.5 percent. An additional 392,810 new workers will be needed to take jobs left vacant by people who retire or otherwise leave the labor force.

Successfully filling more than 500,000 new and replacement openings through 2019 will require new labor force entrants, dislocated workers, and people in career transition with the requisite education, skills and experience.

Preparing Tomorrow’s Workforce

Traditionally, high levels of education have been a hallmark of Minnesota residents. In 2009 the state ranked second nationally in the percentage of the population age 25 and older that had a high school diploma or equivalency (91.5 percent) and 11th in the percent of the population with a bachelor’s degree (21.2 percent) (see Table 2).[4]  In the Twin Cities nearly half of adults had a post-secondary degree in 2009.

Based on employment projections through 2019, about 35 percent of jobs in the Twin Cities will require a post-secondary award or degree in 2019. The fastest job growth includes occupations that require doctoral degrees (18.8 percent), associate degrees (16.1 percent), or master’s degrees (13.1 percent) (see Table 3).

While occupations requiring advanced levels of training display the fastest growth rates, careers requiring short-term on-the-job training are projected to have the largest number of new and replacement positions between 2009 and 2019. These occupations include waiters and waitresses, personal and home care aides, cashiers, and retail salespersons — occupations that usually have high replacement or turnover rates. Occupations requiring moderate or long-term on-the-job training include positions that may require some post-secondary class work or apprenticeship programs. Jobs in this category include bookkeeping clerks, dental assistants, carpenters, and executive secretaries.

Together occupations requiring more extensive on-the-job training, experience, or post-secondary degrees account for more than 60 percent of jobs projected to be available in the Twin Cities in 2019.

At first glance the outlook appears good. An already well-educated population will find ample opportunities in the Twin Cities. Figure 2, however, paints a slightly different picture. The educational attainment of Twin Cities residents by race and ethnicity shows a disparity. While 96 percent of white residents had a high school diploma, only 74.5 percent of minority residents had a high school diploma. One in two white adults in the Twin Cities had a college degree in 2009, compared with one in three minority adults.

As future jobs require higher levels of education or experience, workers must be prepared to compete for positions. Monitoring educational outcomes may be necessary so that residents and businesses in the Twin Cities participate and remain competitive in the future economy.

[1]U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 census.
[2]The census classifies race and ethnicity as separate categories, so the minority population is defined here as the non-white, Hispanic, or Latino population.
[3]U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
[4]U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.

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