From Candle Makers to Computer Software Engineers
By Dave Senf
March 2009
PDF of article (2 pages)
Census data offer a snapshot of how Minnesota’s occupational mix has changed in the last 150 years.
Back of the envelope calculations show that Minnesota has averaged about 20,000 new jobs a year since statehood back in 1858. About 3 million jobs exist in the state today, up more than a tad from the 53,400 jobs reported in the 1860 census.
Minnesota has added jobs faster than the country through the years, increasing its share of national employment to 2 percent in 2008 from 0.6 percent in 1860. Minnesota’s economy doesn’t outperform the national economy every year when it comes to job creation, but over the first 15 decades the state has managed to have more good than bad years relative to the nation.
When Henry Sibley was serving as the state’s first governor, there were 47 jobs for every 100 Minnesotans. Today that ratio stands at 57 jobs per 100 Minnesotans. Making historical comparisons, however, can be tricky because the 1860 census doesn’t say anything about full-time versus part-time employment. Today’s 3 million jobs include part-time and full-time jobs, wage and salary jobs, and self-employed jobs.
There were no Minnesotans working as computer software engineers, avionics technicians, or numerical tool and process control programmers when Minnesota joined the Union, but there were jobs for chandlers, coopers, mantua makers, and ostlers – in other words, work for candle makers, wood-barrel makers, dress makers, and horse tenders.
The 53,400 jobs reported in the 1860 census were spread across 167 occupations, with farming the most common, accounting for 52 percent of all employment in the state. Today’s 3 million jobs are spread across 790 occupations, led by retail sales which accounts for 83,300 positions. Retail jobs represent about 2.8 percent of Minnesota’s job base. The 50 largest occupations accounted for 95 percent of all employment in 1860, compared with 50 percent in 2006.
Farming remained the top occupation in the state for most of the state’s 150 years before sliding a few notches over the last three decades. Farmers ranked as the ninth largest occupation in the state, accounting for less than 2 percent of all employment in Minnesota in 2006. New technology has been the overwhelming force behind the decline in farmer numbers. Innovations in farm machinery pushed up farm productivity, forcing farmers to get bigger or get out. The end result has been larger farms and fewer farmers.
Obviously, technology has contributed to shifts in other occupations as well. That shift can be seen by comparing the top 50 occupations in Minnesota in 1860, 1910, 1960 and 2006.[1] In 1910 Minnesota was in the middle of moving from the agricultural-based economy of its early days to an industrial-based economy that included railroads, telephones and electricity. Steamboat men and river pilots fell off the top 50 list between 1860 and 1910, while four railroad jobs—steam railroad laborers, locomotive engineers, locomotive firemen, and switchmen and flagmen—moved into the top 50. Today Minnesota’s railroad industry employs about 5,000 workers in Minnesota, compared with 3,800 in 1860.
Telephone operators popped up as a top 50 occupation by 1910 and were still on the charts in 1960. But only 200 telephone operators were still on Minnesota payrolls by 2006. Automated directories, voicemail systems and automatic switchboards have greatly reduced the demand for telephone operators over time. Blacksmith work was common in 1860 and through 1910, but by 1960 tractors and combines had replaced horses as the main source of horsepower.
Lumbermen and sawyers were leading occupations in 1860, as were sawmill and planing mill laborers and lumbermen, raftsmen and woodchoppers in 1910. But by the mid-1930s Minnesota’s white pine forest had been logged out and the nation’s lumber industry moved on to the Pacific Northwest. Minnesota’s wood products cluster, along with its paper manufacturing industry, is still an important slice of Minnesota’s economy, but its relative employment levels has declined since Paul Bunyan and Babe roamed Minnesota’s forests.
Minnesota’s iron ore industry was off and running by 1910, with 16,700 people working as iron mine workers. Iron ore workers represented about 2 percent of all the jobs in the state a century ago and ranked as the 10th most common occupation. Minnesota’s taconite industry employs about 3,600 workers today or less than 0.2 percent of the state’s employment base.
Manufacturing’s key role as an economic engine for Minnesota was also evident by 1910. General skilled manufacturing laborers ranked as the fourth largest occupation in 1910. Other common manufacturing-related jobs 100 years ago were machinists and millwrights, milliners, manufacturer managers, and manufacturing foremen.
Truck drivers, delivery men, and route men had replaced draymen, teamsters, and expressmen (a top occupation in 1910) as major transportation occupations by 1960, as Minnesotans along with the rest of the country hit the highways. As the highways and streets of Minnesota filled up with cars and trucks, demand for auto repair work increased, driving automobile mechanics into the top 50 list in 1960.
Typists were the 24th largest occupation in 1960 but were whited out of the top 50 list by 2006 because of widespread usage of personal computers. Bosses started doing their own typing once their typos could be easily deleted and spelling errors quickly corrected using spell check.
Minnesota’s ongoing shift from an industry-based to a knowledge-based service economy is evident by the drop in goods-producing occupations in the top 50 list between 1960 and 2006. Fifty years ago 16 of the largest occupations were found predominately in goods-producing industries compared with seven in 2006. More workers were employed in goods-producing occupations such as welders, machinists, plumbers, and pipefitters in 2006 than in 1960, but their numbers compared with faster growing services-producing occupations have slipped. Occupations like business operations specialists, home health aides, teacher assistants and computer software engineers have moved into the top 50 list, replacing manufacturing and construction jobs.
While Minnesota’s occupational mix has shifted over time, the workplace doesn’t change overnight. About half of the top 50 occupations in 2006 were also top occupations in 1960. Retail clerks, waitresses and waiters, janitors and cleaners were common jobs back in 1960 and will likely be on the bicentennial top 50 list in 2058, unless Minnesotans stop shopping and dining out. Occupations that made both the 1960 and 2006 largest occupation lists accounted for roughly 45 percent of all employment in 1960 and 30 percent in 2006.
DEED doesn’t gaze 50 years into the future when it comes to occupations, but it does make 10-year occupational and industrial employment projections. The projections are revised every two years in order to keep up with technological advances, new business practices, consumer demand shifts, and government policy and spending changes.
Check out the projections www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/projections/Default.aspx for a head start at guessing what occupations will be in the top 50 list in 2058.
[1]Occupational data for all years except 2006 are from U.S. Census. Occupational data for 2006 is from 2006-2016 projections employment data found at www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/projections/Default.aspx .