Tracking Occupational Trends in the New Millennium
By Dave Senf
May 2008
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A lot is going on below the surface of Minnesota's evolving labor market.
While job growth during the first seven years of the new millennium has slowed compared with the robust pace of the late 1990s, demand has been strong for some occupations in Minnesota. The dynamic nature of the employment market means that the occupational mix of jobs in the state will continue to shift no matter what the economy is doing.
Various forces affect job prospects, including demand for goods and services, technological innovation, globalization, productivity gains, shifts in business practices and changes in laws.
The changing family mealtime is a prime example of how shifting spending habits reshape the workplace. Minnesotans spend less time preparing meals at home today than 10 years ago. Families are eating out more or bringing more prepared or partially prepared food home. This shift in eating habits translates into expanded demand for food service managers, chefs, cooks and food-preparation workers.
In another example of the evolving workforce, rising worker productivity because of computers and automated machinery has lowered the demand for assemblers at Minnesota manufacturing companies. At the same time, demand has increased for workers who install or repair automation equipment. The Internet has increased jobs for workers with information technology skills but has reduced demand for writers at newspapers, which are cutting payrolls in response to lower revenues as advertising dollars move to the Internet.
Increased demand for higher education is one factor in the growth in post-secondary teaching positions. But just as important is the use of more part-time faculty at colleges. This switch is an example of a change in business practice. Offshoring ¬¬— moving jobs to sites outside the United States — is another business trend that is affecting Minnesota. A share of Minnesota’s manufacturing job decline over the last 10 years is likely related to offshoring, as businesses seek to be closer to markets and supplies, as well as to lower production costs.
Changes in laws can also influence the ebb and flow of occupations. Stricter criminal sentencing guidelines put in place 10 years ago mean more correctional facilities and staffing are needed. Accountants and auditors can thank the heightened regulatory climate and various new accounting regulations for the jump in demand for their services over the last few years.
So how have the above factors shifted the occupational sands in Minnesota since 2000? Figures 1 and 2 summarize the best available occupational data on Minnesota’s job market since 2000. Figure 1 is based on a survey of Minnesota employers by the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED). The occupational data in Figure 2 was collected in a survey of Minnesota employees by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Figure 1 shows Minnesota’s occupation mix over 22 major groups. The data in Figure 1 are from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program, which uses semi-annual surveys to produce employment and wage estimates for about 800 occupation classifications. OES survey samples are drawn from employers covered by the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system. In Minnesota about 6,000 employers participate in the survey each year.1 About 92 percent of all jobs in the state are covered by the OES data; the self-employed are excluded in the OES survey.
Food preparation and serving-related jobs have expanded the fastest since 1999, according to the OES data, while production jobs have slipped the most. Major occupational groups with above-average growth include high-skill, high-paying positions in business and financial operations, health care and technical fields, and low-skill, low-paid jobs in food preparation and serving and in personal care and service.
Figure 2 shows recent changes in Minnesota’s occupational mix at a greater level of aggregation than the OES occupational mix in Figure 1. Figure 2 data is based on the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau. The American Community Survey is a nationwide survey of households designed to replace the decennial long form in future censuses. The survey provides annual estimates of demographic, housing, social and economic characteristics for all states, as well as for all cities, counties, metropolitan areas and population groups of 65,000 people or more.2
Since the ACS surveys households about work, industry and occupational status, the 8 percent of jobs in Minnesota that are held by people who are self-employed or working in jobs not covered by Unemployment Insurance are, in theory, captured. The level of occupational detail available through the ACS is limited but will improve when the ACS is fully implemented. The occupational trends evident in the ACS data correspond to the occupational trends identified in the OES data. Employment in service and management, professional, and related occupations is growing faster than overall employment. Jobs in production, transportation and materials-moving occupations, as a group, have lagged behind overall employment.
Both the OES and ACS data confirm that a lot is going on below the surface of the Minnesota labor market. Job growth may have slowed, but the ebbs and flows of occupations continue. Just as some industries are growing and others shrinking, the same is happening with occupations, with some expanding and others dropping off.
1For more information on the OES program visit http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/tools/oes/default.aspx.
2More information on the ACS is available at http://www.census.gov/acs/www/.
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