Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown 
August 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

The main story for July was the effect of the 20-day layoff of non-education state workers. This loss was the cause of the unusually large monthly decline of 2.0 percent in July which was 0.7 of a percentage point greater than the usual July loss. The loss in state government non-education units tells the story with a decline of 56.9 percent from June to July. Private educational services was also substantially weaker with a decline of 6.1 percent, a loss that was about 2.0 percent larger than usual. Manufacturing, with a gain of 0.7 percent and financial activities, also up 0.7 percent, both posted results that were stronger than expected and countered a small portion of the month’s declines in other areas. The rate of over-the-year change was clearly much lower given the government data, dropping from 1.1 percent in June (revised) to 0.4 percent in July. Obviously the largest change was in state government non-education employment where the annual change dropped from -1.8 percent in June to -57.6 percent in July. Private sector growth measured 1.3 percent with the three largest gains coming in education and health care, up 8,000, business services, up 6,100, and leisure and hospitality, up 5,200.

Duluth-Superior MSA

Of the smaller estimated metro areas, Duluth-Superior was most impacted by the decline in state government. The metro area saw a monthly decline of 2.8 percent overall, well above the average decline of 1.6 percent for the previous 10 years. State government employment was down 23.6 for the month compared to an average July loss of 5.9 percent for the previous 10 years. Leisure and hospitality growth was also below expectations. Manufacturing increased well above expectations with an increase of 1.2 percent. In the past year the metro area showed an increase of 0.9 percent, down significantly from growth of 2.3 percent posted in June. Private employment was up strongly with an increase of 3,400 over the year. Government employment was down 2,300 with losses of 1,100 in state government, 800 in local government, and 400 in federal government. The largest annual increases were in educational and health services, up 1,300, trade, transportation, and utilities, up 1,100, and a gain of 900 in leisure and hospitality.

Rochester MSA

Rochester was down somewhat more than usual at -1.0 percent. Government employment was down a great deal driven by the monthly loss of 40.5 percent in state government. While the state government decline was substantial at -600, state government is a relatively small part of the Rochester employment picture. As a result, gains made in other industries mitigated the losses in state government. For example, trade, transportation, and utilities showed an increase of 0.4 percent compared to an expected loss of 1.4 percent.  Employment was stronger in professional and business services and in manufacturing as well. Over the past year Rochester saw an increase of 2,500.

St. Cloud MSA

Gains in private sector employment were strong enough to erase much of the monthly loss of 1,100 in government employment and to yield a monthly change of -400 for the metro area. The strength of private employment growth was obvious in the 0.9 percent monthly gain compared to an average loss of 0.1 percent in the previous 10 years. Eight of nine private sector supersectors showed monthly growth in excess of the average July gains. Over the past year, employment in St. Cloud was up 1.4 percent. The strongest growth was in education and health care with a gain of 1,000 followed by a gain of 400 in leisure and hospitality and smaller gains in trade, transportation, and utilities and in professional and business services.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

The Fargo-Moorhead metro area experienced a loss of 0.8 percent, well below the usual level of seasonal decline in July. Mining and construction posted a gain of 5.3 percent which was the best July result since 2004. Leisure and hospitality posted a gain of 2.0 percent marking only the second July increase since 2001. Trade, transportation, and utilities showed somewhat better results largely because retail trade did not show its usual small loss. The good monthly results moved the rate of annual growth up to 2.4 percent. The strongest growth was in transportation, warehousing, and utilities at 8.7 percent followed by professional and business services and mining, logging, and construction, up 5.9 and 5.8 percent, respectively.

Grand Forks MSA

Grand Forks saw a loss of 2.5 percent over the past month, a result slightly better than expected. Trade, transportation, and utilities showed the best results as the gain of 0.7 was the first July gain in the past 10 years. Mining, logging, and construction also showed marginal improvement for the month. The rate of annual growth increased to 4.0 percent in July. The areas showing the strongest annual growth included transportation, warehousing, and utilities, up 14.5 percent, mining, logging, and construction, up 13.7 percent, and professional and business services, up 10.1 percent. The only supersectors showing losses were information and government.

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