Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown 
December 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

November saw poor employment results for the Twin Cities, but the weakness was much reduced compared to statewide results. The monthly change was -0.1 percent as compared to the usual small gain for the month. A number of areas posted weaker-than-expected results. Government employment, in particular local government employment, saw much slower employment gains in November than would be expected in an average year. Trade, transportation, and utilities was also substantially weaker despite strong monthly growth in retail trade. Professional and business services showed no change over the month, but this was better than an average change of -0.3 percent during the previous 10 years. Manufacturing showed much better monthly results than the state as a whole because nondurable goods manufacturing performed better. Over the past year the metro area posted a gain of 1.0 percent overall and was up 1.7 percent in private employment. Seven supersectors showed gains, particularly educational and health services, up 8,600, and professional and business services, up 8,900. The largest annual loss was in government which was down 7,700 largely from a decline of 5,600 in local government.

Duluth-Superior MSA

November proved to be a weak month for employment growth in Duluth as nine out of 10 supersectors showed unadjusted monthly growth worse than the average rate of change for the previous 10 years. Overall the monthly change, -0.7 percent, was 0.4 percentage point below an average November. Only manufacturing showed strong growth for the month, up 1.2 percent, compared to an average change of -0.7. Compared to last year, the MSA was down 900 and showed losses in seven of 10 supersectors. The only gains were in leisure and hospitality, other services, and professional and business services. Mining, logging, and construction posted an annual loss of 500. Local government was down 400 over the year.

Rochester MSA

November employment estimates showed very poor performance for the Rochester labor market.  The MSA saw an overall November decline of 1.0 percent, nearly a 0.9 percentage point lower than the average loss of 0.1 percent over the previous 10 years. The weakness was spread across industries with eight of 10 supersectors performing below historically-based expectations in terms of monthly growth. Rochester showed the addition of 1,200 jobs over the past 12 months. There were two areas of major gains. Educational and health services, which accounts for more than 40 percent of the employment of the metro area, showed a gain of 1,000. The other large increase was in local government. The only large decline was posted in information with a loss of 300.

St. Cloud MSA

The unadjusted monthly change in St. Cloud in November was exactly equal to the average November change over the previous 10 years. Government employment growth was a bit slower than average in November, particularly in state government. This was balanced by fairly strong growth in educational and health services, which grew by 0.9 percent compared to a usual loss of 0.8 percent. Wholesale and retail trade also showed somewhat stronger than expected results.  Compared to a year ago, employment fell 1.1 percent, a slight improvement from October. Nearly all of the loss came from government with a decline of 900; 700 were in local government. Other services and manufacturing also showed a loss of 100 each.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Employment in Fargo-Moorhead saw a monthly change that was largely in line with expectations.  There was a mix of areas that showed slight monthly improvements countered by areas that were slightly weaker. The strongest performance was in mining, logging, and construction which saw a decline of only 1.9 percent compared to a usual decline of about 5.0 percent. This is equal to an additional 200 jobs. Over the past year the metro area showed a gain of 3,100 or 2.5 percent.  Nine of 10 supersectors showed job gains, the only loss being a miniscule drop in information employment. The largest gain came in professional and business services with an increase of 900.  Other large gains came in mining, logging, and construction, up 600, trade, transportation, and utilities, up 500, and government, up 400.

Grand Forks MSA

November estimates showed employment down 0.5 percent for the month on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, substantially below the usual increase of a few tenths of a percent. The largest portion of this weakness came in government where both state and local government failed to show their usual level of November increases, each being more than a percentage point below expected monthly change. Manufacturing also showed a larger loss than usual for the month. Over the past year Grand Forks employment was up 2.7 percent with eight of 10 supersectors adding jobs. The largest increases came in trade, transportation, and utilities, up 600, mining, logging, and construction, up by 400, and leisure and hospitality, also up 400. The only major loss was in manufacturing, down 300 for the year.

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