The 2010 Census: What's Old is New Again

by Rachel Vilsack

Perhaps no data collection event is as complex, comprehensive, or more valuable for understanding our nation’s population as the decennial census, both in terms of numbers and characteristics. Census mobilization efforts begin years in advance with the development and design of the questionnaire, address verifications, and massive recruitment efforts for census enumerators – all of this preparation in order to count the U.S. population on one single day of the year once every decade.

History of the U.S. Census

The U.S. Constitution requires that a national census take place every 10 years to count the nation’s population. First conducted in 1790, the census was used exclusively for enumeration. An accurate population count determines the number of congressional seats assigned to each state in the U.S. House of Representatives. Population statistics also establish the distribution of federal monetary allocations to states and communities.

In 1902 the Census Bureau, a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce, was established as the need for expanded demographic, social, and economic information grew during the 19th century. Even with the help of machines during the 1890 census, processing data became a year-round job. Until the mid-19th century census enumerators visited each household to collect data on household residents. The 1960 census included the first mailed surveys (to urban households), and the 1990 census included electronic data collection methods.

Since the number and wording of questions asked on the census changes each decade, there may be very little comparison between census data across time. Table 1 highlights a few data points for all 22 decades for which the census has been conducted.

One thing is consistent among all censuses: a population count. Consider the size of the population in the early 1800s, when it took less than 30 years for the population to double. Over the last 50 years the population has grown about 13 percent on average. The entire U.S. population in 1790 could fit into the city of Los Angeles today.

Table 2 provides a 200-year snapshot of the 10 largest urban places as recorded by census population counts. As the population expanded westward, so too did the largest urban areas. In 1800 all of the largest urban areas were on the eastern coast; by 2000 just two were on the East Coast. Minneapolis ranked as the 47th largest city in 2000 with a population of 373,200; St. Paul ranked 62nd with a population of 280,400. (Click here for larger image.)

Today the Census Bureau coordinates not only the decennial census but the annual American Community Survey, the monthly Current Population Survey (which is used to determine the national unemployment rate), and economic censuses every five years.

Census Re-Design?

The 2010 census will look much different than census forms of the past. Instead of a short and long form, all 2010 census forms will include only 10 questions, taking approximately 10 minutes for a household to complete. Questions will ask for the name, age, gender, race, and ethnicity of individuals residing at each address on April 1, 2010, in addition to whether a housing unit is rented or owned. Census questionnaires are approved by Congress.

The move to a shorter, more streamlined census is possible because of the American Community Survey, an annual survey of households, which asks detailed demographic, social, economic, and housing questions. The 3 million households selected annually to participate in the American Community Survey are statistically chosen to represent the 3,141 counties and county equivalents in the United States, including the District of Columbia and municipalities in Puerto Rico. In addition to households, group quarters are also sampled. These include college residence halls, residential treatment centers, nursing and group homes, and correctional facilities. Households cannot be selected for the survey more than once in five years. This survey has eliminated the need for a long-form questionnaire and provides more frequent and up-to-date population characteristics. Prior to the American Community Survey, population characteristics for most geographic areas were static, reflecting the point-in-time census. Now annual statistics are available for states, large counties, and cities. Multi-year estimates are available for other geographies.¹

The 2010 census will still be paper based. The Census Bureau has not yet offered an online response or electronic option, citing security issues as the barrier to a more technology-minded, data-collection process. Such measures will be explored before the 2020 census.

2010 Census Controversy

In the age of data privacy some controversy has centered on the confidentiality of data and responses to census questions. Census questionnaires will ask for the names and birth dates of each household resident. This information is used to ensure that each person is counted once. Data collected by the census are confidential, and it is against the law for the Census Bureau to give personal information about an individual to anyone or any organization until 72 years after it is collected. Census data are not shared with immigration and customs officials, the Internal Revenue Service, courts, or police. The need for confidentiality is due, in part, to the necessity for all persons living in the U.S. to participate without fear of how the Census Bureau will be using their personal information.

It is this protection of privacy that census officials hope will assuage any distrust individuals have about participating. This is particularly the case for refugees or recent immigrant populations who may not understand why they have received a questionnaire or a personal visit from a census enumerator. While census questionnaires will be available in Chinese, Korean, Russian, Spanish, or Vietnamese, local census assistance offices will offer instruction guides in 59 languages. Since the aim of the census is and has been to count all residents physically living in the U.S., population counts will include noncitizen residents as well. For places with large numbers of noncitizens like California and Texas, the number of congressional seats apportioned to these states may be higher than if only the citizen population was counted.

There is also concern over how foreclosures will affect the enumeration of households with multi-family occupants. Census directions will ask responders to include everyone where they’re living (i.e., their usual residence) so if two families are living together on April 1, they will be counted as one household.

Extra accommodations for a complete count of persons also extend to the nation’s homeless population. The Census Bureau created Service Based Enumeration (SBE) operations to count individuals utilizing temporary services, such as homeless shelters and soup kitchens. Over a three-day period, enumerators will count persons residing in shelters, using mobile food vans or soup kitchens, and other pre-identified targeted outdoor locations.² Special “Be Counted” forms will also be made available in the community for individuals who did not receive a census form or who believe they have not been counted on another census questionnaire.

2010 Census Implication for Minnesota

Results of the 2010 census may have repercussions for Minnesota. Minnesota is in danger of losing a congressional seat if population counts should fall. Officials from the State Demographic Center estimate that Minnesota could lose a congressional seat if fewer than 3,000 residents do not fill out their census forms.³ They are advising “snowbirds” or Minnesota residents who spend the winter in another, warmer locale but live in Minnesota during the summer, to fill out their census form when they return in the spring. Census questionnaires will not be forwarded to other addresses, so people living out of the state during mid-March, when the first round of questionnaires will be sent, will need to check their mailboxes when they return home or request another form at a nearby census assistance center. The goal is to be counted as residents of Minnesota.

In addition to determining the number of congressional seats, census population counts are used for the distribution of federal dollars. It’s estimated that for every 100 Minnesotans who don’t fill out the census form, the state will lose $1 million in federal funding over the next 10 years.⁴ So this seemingly simple survey has long-lasting implications.

Volunteer opportunities, which are coordinated by the Minnesota State Demographic Center, are available. They may include making telephone calls, office work, serving as a census 2010 ambassador, assisting with the advertisement of the 2010 census, or staffing an information booth. For information on Minnesota’s efforts for the 2010 census, including how to volunteer, where to find assistance centers in your community, and more, please visit www.mn2010census.org .

¹In Minnesota the American Community Survey provides annual estimates for the state, 12 counties and eight cities, Metropolitan Statistical Areas, eight congressional districts, and 17 school districts.  Multi-year estimates are available for geographic areas with populations of 20,000 or greater as three-year estimates and starting in 2010. Five-year estimates will be available for all other geographic areas.

²Minnesota Coalition for the Homeless, www.mnhomelesscoalition.org/prepare-now-for-2010-census/headlines, accessed Dec. 17, 2009.

³Tweed, Jodie. “Officials want snowbirds counted in Minnesota,” Brainerd Dispatch, Oct. 24, 2009.

⁴Linehan, Dan. “Census aims special effort at students, new immigrants,” Mankato Free Press, Nov. 17, 2009.

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