Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown
July 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

June estimates showed an employment increase of 1.3 percent for the Twin Cities, more than twice the average gain for June in the previous 10 years. This reflected very large gains in several supersectors, notably the robust 6.8 percent increase in leisure and hospitality compared to a usual increase of about 2.6 percent. Trade, transportation, and utilities saw an increase of 1.8 percent, about three times the normal increase as wholesale and retail trade grew strongly. Education also posted strong growth largely from smaller than usual seasonal layoffs in education. Over the past year the Twin Cities saw a 1.0 percent gain in employment, equal to 17,900 jobs. Areas of strong growth included professional and business services, up 9,000, educational and health services, up 6,900, and leisure and hospitality, up 6,800.  The largest decline was in other services with an estimated loss of 3,300.

Duluth-Superior MSA

Monthly growth for Duluth-Superior was a strong 2.0 percent, well above the usual increase of about 0.7 percent. A number of industries drove growth, notably leisure and hospitality which showed the highest monthly increase on record for June. Trade, transportation, and utilities was another area of strength, particularly in wholesale trade but with retail trade also contributing. Mining, logging, and construction saw growth far outstripping that of the past four years with a gain of 7.4 percent, similar to gains posted for June early in the 2000s. Over the past year the MSA’s employment was up 3,500. Three supersectors dominated the gains including educational and health services and leisure and hospitality, which each increased 1,200, and trade, transportation, and utilities with a gain of 700.

Rochester MSA

Employment growth for Rochester was up 2.4 percent for the month, somewhat higher than usual June growth. Several supersectors showed strong monthly growth including mining, logging, and construction; trade, transportation, and utilities; leisure and hospitality; and financial activities. However, the most important industry supersector, educational and health services, showed only average growth, and manufacturing growth was about half the norm for June. Over the past year Rochester employment was up 2,800 or 2.7 percent. Three supersectors accounted for most of the growth: educational and health services, up 1,400; leisure and hospitality and professional and business services, each up 400 jobs; mining, logging, and construction employment up 200. The year-ago comparison was a positive tale with only information and financial activities showing very slight losses.

St. Cloud MSA

June estimates produced the expected reversal of the poor job performance in May. Monthly growth equaled 1.2 percent compared to a usual decline of about 1.6 percent. The major reason for this was state government where the usual summer layoffs occurred in May rather than June, resulting in a June change of -2.6 compared to the usual decline of about 24 percent. Leisure and hospitality was up 3.1 percent rather than the usual small loss. Trade, transportation, and utilities showed a very strong increase of 1.5 percent. Seasonal losses in education and health were below usual levels. In sum, the estimates showed very positive monthly growth. This was reflected in the change to the rate of annual growth which improved from -1.2 percent in May to a gain of 1.2 percent in June. The change was led by state government which returned to a more nearly normal -2.3 percent in June, up from -23.8 in May. The MSA gain of 1,200 was concentrated in educational and health services, up 1,000; leisure and hospitality, up 300; and professional and business services, also up 300. The only major loss was in manufacturing which fell 400 the past 12 months.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Fargo-Moorhead saw a monthly gain of 0.2 percent in June rather than the usual loss of about 0.9 percent.  This strong growth was driven by several industry groups outperforming expectations including government; educational and health services; mining, logging, and construction; and trade, transportation, and utilities. Annual job growth jumped from 0.4 percent in May to 1.0 percent in June. The annual gains were essentially all from trade, transportation, and utilities, which added 500 jobs, and from manufacturing, up 300.
 

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