Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown
June 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

The Twin Cities metro area gained 1.3 percent in May.  This rate of change is slightly below expected May employment growth.  Professional and business services was the only supersector that showed strong employment gains for the month.  The main cause was monthly growth in administrative and support services that was more than two percentage points higher than usual for May.  Government employment posted some of the weakest results with the monthly gain of 0.3 percent coming in about half a percentage point below expectations largely from weakness in local government education.  Most of the remaining supersectors showed results that were a bit below expectations.  The rate of over-the-year growth was up slightly to 0.1 percent, equal to a gain of only 2,000.  Only three supersectors showed over-the-year growth including professional and business services, up 4.0 percent, educational and health service, up 1.3 percent, and manufacturing, up 0.8 percent.  The remaining supersectors posted losses ranging from 0.8 percent in Information to 2.5 percent in other services.  Over-the-year comparisons are affected by the inclusion of more than 4,000 temporary Census workers in May 2010 which was the peak employment month for the Census effort last year.

Duluth-Superior MSA

There was an employment increase of 2.2 percent over the past month in Duluth-Superior compared to a usual increase of about 1.7 percent in May.  Professional and business services showed the strongest growth, up 2.6 percent, compared to a 10-year average of 1.1 percent for May.  Most of the other supersectors showed moderately strong monthly results.  The only supersector that can be characterized as having undeniably weak growth was manufacturing where employment fell 2.7 percent rather than the usual May increase of about 1.0 percent.  The strong month saw the rate of over-the-year growth move up several tenths of a percentage point to 0.3 percent.  Private services showed an increase of 1,900 with educational and health service accounting for about 1,000 of the increase.  Professional and business services and leisure and hospitality were both up 300 for the year as well.  The major drain on employment growth was government with a loss of over 900.

Rochester MSA

Rochester employment increased 1.6 percent for the month.  This was about 0.4 of a percentage point better than the average May increase the past 10 years.  Areas contributing the most to the improvement included educational and health services, up 0.7 percent which is several tenths above the usual, leisure and hospitality with monthly growth nearly twice the usual rate, and professional and business services.  Over the past year the supersector showed a gain of 1,300, equal to 1.3 percent.  Not surprisingly the majority of the growth came in educational and health services which was up over 700 jobs.   The manufacturing and professional and business services supersectors both added 300.  Leisure and hospitality was up 200.

St. Cloud MSA

May estimates showed a very large drop in employment in St. Cloud for May.  The past ten years the metro area usually grew by about 1.3 percent, but the monthly change came in at -0.4 percent this month.  By far the largest reason for the weak monthly result was that seasonal layoffs that occur in the summer in state government were pushed forward into May.  In recent years state government showed a loss of three to four percent in May but in 2011 the decline was 23.4 percent.  The difference is equal to about 1,000 fewer jobs for the month, and the impact should be reversed in June estimates.  Education and health, manufacturing, and trade, transportation, and utilities were also areas that performed well below expectations.  There were really no areas of significant monthly growth although leisure and hospitality outperformed the usual monthly change, up 3.7 percent from April.  The weak month dropped the rate of annual change to -1.5 percent with state government accounting for nearly 1,300 of the annual loss of 1,500 for the metro area as a whole.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Monthly growth in Fargo-Moorhead was equal to 0.4 percent which is about half the rate of average May growth over the last 10 years.  Among the areas with the weakest results were mining, logging, and construction, retail, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality.  Over the past year the MSA showed a gain of 0.1 percent with five supersectors showing losses and five showing gains.

Grand Forks MSA

Grand Forks experienced a 3.4 percent monthly gain in May, well above the normal May increase.  This increase was widely distributed but particularly notable in trade, transportation, and utilities, in educational and health services, in leisure and hospitality, and in other services.  The strong monthly growth produced a large improvement in over-the-year comparisons, up to 4.0 percent in May.  Nearly all of the industries in private services showed strong annual growth, particularly in retail trade and in educational and health services.

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