Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown 
May 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

The Twin Cities had a 1 percent monthly increase in employment, which is a bit below usual for April during a year with positive economic growth. Mining, logging, and construction showed very weak monthly results. For the past 10 years the supersector averaged an unadjusted April gain of 7.3 percent but posted an increase of just 3.1 percent for this April. Similarly, wholesale trade was half a percentage point below the usual April gain, and retail was only slightly better. Other services also posted weak monthly results. Two supersectors had strong monthly growth: professional and business services and educational and health services. The rate of over-the-year change dropped substantially to 0 percent. Weak growth in April was the major part of this, but April growth in 2010 was very strong contributing to a weaker year-ago comparison. Only three supersectors had annual gains. Professional and business services employment was up nearly 8,700, followed by education and health care, up 4,700, and manufacturing, up 2,600. Mining, logging, and construction continued to have major losses, down 4,200 for the year, but the largest annual loss was actually in leisure and hospitality, which was off by 4,700 jobs. About 1,700 temporary census workers that were still employed in April 2010 contributed to the weak year-ago comparison.

Duluth-Superior MSA

Monthly job growth of 1 percent in Duluth-Superior placed it slightly below the average April gain for the past 10 years. Manufacturing posted weak results for the month. Trade, transportation, and utilities also showed poor growth relative to an average April. One bright note was professional and business services where monthly growth was 2.1 percent compared to an average gain of 1.6 percent the previous 10 years. The rate of annual change slipped from 0.3 percent in March to -0.7 in April. A large part of this turnaround was caused by temporary census workers who were included in last year’s count. Federal government employment by itself showed an annual loss of more than 900 essentially caused by the inclusion of these workers last year. The remainder of the estimates showed mixed results. Mining, logging, and construction was down 500, and information was reduced by 200. Educational and health services and state government both posted gains of about 500.

Rochester MSA

Rochester showed below-average monthly job growth in April, a 0.5 percent gain, about 0.3 of a percentage point below the average for the previous 10 years. The majority of supersectors showed somewhat weak growth. Mining, logging, and construction was a significant reason for the poor monthly growth as was educational and health care services and financial activities. Over the past year the MSA was up 0.3 percent or 300 jobs. Five supersectors posted gains and five posted losses. Annual gains of about 300 were present in three supersectors: manufacturing, professional and business services, and educational and health services. Major losses were present in retail trade and financial activities.

St. Cloud MSA

The monthly gain of 0.1 percent in St. Cloud was well below normal growth of about 1 percent for April. Nearly every industry showed weaker results with particularly poor growth in education and health care, in mining, logging, and construction, in trade, transportation, and utilities, and in financial activities. Compared to last year the MSA showed a loss of 0.2 percent. This was a significant drop from a gain of 1.6 percent (revised) posted in March and indicates just how weak the monthly results were. Six supersectors showed losses with the largest decline coming in mining, logging, and construction, down 300, although several supersectors fell by 200 jobs. Educational and health services added 400.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Employment in Fargo-Moorhead increased slightly, up 0.2 percent for the month of April, which is substantially below the usual increase in excess of 1 percent. Professional and business services was off sharply showing a decline of 6 percent in a month when an increase of nearly 2 percent is usual. Leisure and hospitality also showed growth well below expected. Over the past year the MSA showed no change in employment. There were substantial gains in manufacturing and in trade, transportation, and utilities with increases of 300 and 500, respectively. The largest losses were in professional and business services and in educational and health services each of which lost 400 jobs.

Grand Forks MSA

The Grand Forks metro area employment growth was close to expectations at 0.3 percent in April. Over the past year, employment had a 0 percent change after rounding. Six of 10 supersectors showed annual decline. Mining, logging, and construction was up by about 400 and trade, transportation, and utilities gained 200. The largest loss was in leisure and hospitality where employment was down more than 200.

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