Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown 
November 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Employment in the metro area was up 0.6 percent, which was below the rate of October growth the past two years. Trade, transportation, and utilities showed poor performance, up only 0.5 percent, below the usual expected change of about 0.9 percent, as wholesale and transportation industries underperformed. Educational services showed substantially poorer results adding only 4.1 percent, the worst October growth on record. Other areas of weakness included real estate and rental and leasing, other services, and arts, entertainment, and recreation. Manufacturing showed strong growth, particularly the gain of 0.9 percent in durables goods manufacturing. Professional and business services also showed good growth, up 1.8 percent compared to a usual increase of about 0.8 percent, based on strong gains in administrative and support services. The over-the-year rate of growth was 1.2 percent as seven of 10 supersectors showed annual growth. The most important gains were 9,100 in professional and business services and 5,300 jobs added in health care and social assistance. Manufacturing also added 3,100, closely followed by mining, logging, and construction, up 3,000 jobs.

Duluth-Superior MSA

Nearly every supersector underperformed expectations for changes in October employment in the Duluth-Superior metro area. The worst monthly results were in other services at -4.8 percent, financial activities at -3.0, and leisure and hospitality at -6.5. The only area with a clear positive contribution for the month was government with a 5.4 percent monthly increase.  Over the past year the metro area showed a loss of 0.5 percent, a reversal from a gain of 1.3 percent in September. The precipitous drop is indicative of the very weak monthly results. The largest part of the loss was in mining, logging, and construction which was down 800 compared to last year. The largest employment gains came in leisure and hospitality and in general merchandise stores, both up 200 over the year.

Rochester MSA

Rochester employment showed a loss of 0.5 percent in October, about 0.5 of a percentage point worse than usual for the month. Nearly every supersector showed results below expectation. The most notable weaknesses were in manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, financial activities, and trade, transportation, and utilities. The only area with a clear monthly improvement was professional and business services, up 0.7 percent compared to an expected loss of about 0.4 percent. Rochester showed an annual gain of 1,700 in October. The majority was in educational and health services where 1,400 jobs were added. Leisure and hospitality and local government each added 200 jobs. The largest annual loss was in information with a decline of 300.

St. Cloud MSA

There was a gain of 0.9 percent in St. Cloud, a bit slower than the usual October gain. Much of the weakness came from state government where there was little change in a month when employment usually increases by at least several percentage points. Educational and health services and leisure and hospitality experienced change that was about 1.0 percentage point below normal as well. Trade, transportation, and utilities employment was stronger for the month, as was professional and business services.  Compared to last year the metro area showed a loss of 1.3 percent measured against a loss of 0.5 percent in September. The largest annual losses were in government with state government down 300 and local government down 400. Trade, transportation, and utilities fell
by 200.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Fargo-Moorhead employment increased 1.0 percent over the past month, a strong showing compared to an average October gain of about 0.6 percent over the previous decade. The area with the strongest monthly performance was mining, logging, and construction where there was little change in employment in a month when employment usually drops by 3.0 to 4.0 percent. Similarly, leisure and hospitality was up 0.5 percent in a month when it usually declines by more than 1.0 percent. Compared to year-ago data, the metro area improved its rate of growth to 2.6 percent. The largest gains were in professional and business services and in trade, transportation, and utilities, each adding 700 jobs in the past year. Mining, logging, and construction also added 500 jobs.

Grand Forks MSA

The 0.3 percent employment gain in October was below the usual October gain during the previous 10 years. There were no industries with a dramatic weakening evident in the monthly growth estimates, but a bit of underperformance across most industries. Over the past 12 months the metro area showed a gain of 1,700. Only two of 10 supersectors posted annual loss including -200 in manufacturing and a miniscule loss in information. The largest gain was in trade, transportation, and utilities, up 700, including an additional 400 jobs in retail trade and 200 in transportation, warehousing, and utilities. Leisure and hospitality added 300 jobs, followed by educational and health services, up 200 jobs over the year.

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