Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown 
October 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

Twin Cities employment was up 0.1 percent in September, slightly weaker than usual. There were several areas that showed weak results for the month. Chief among these was leisure and hospitality with a monthly decline about twice its usual seasonal level. Mining, logging, and construction, manufacturing, and trade, transportation, and utilities also experienced weakness in September.  In large part this was balanced by growth in other areas. Professional and business services employment showed no change over the month compared to a usual September decline of 0.6 percent. Other areas showing substantial strength included other services and government. Compared to last year the Twin Cities metro area showed an increase of 1.2 percent, down from 1.4 percent in August. Seven out of 10 supersectors showed annual growth. The largest increase was in professional and business services with a gain of 8,600. Educational and health services increased 6,300, driven by growth in ambulatory health care. Strong gains in wholesale trade and in transportation and warehousing contributed to the addition of 4,000 in trade, transportation, and utilities. Countering this was a loss of 3,700 in government and 2,200 in mining, logging, and construction.

Duluth-Superior MSA

September job growth was below normal in Duluth-Superior, up 0.3 percent compared to the usual 1.0 percent. Several areas showed substantial weakness compared to expectations. Leisure and hospitality, education and health care, trade, transportation, and utilities, and mining, logging, and construction all showed growth that was more than 1.0 percentage point below normal. The only supersector showing positive results was other services. Over the past year the metro area added 1,600 jobs with six of the 10 supersectors showing growth. The supersector with the largest gain was education and health up 800 jobs.  Trade, transportation, and utilities and leisure and hospitality each added 700 jobs. Other services added 400 and professional and business services was up 300. The largest losses were a drop of 800 in mining, logging, and construction and a loss of 400 in government.

Rochester MSA

Rochester employment was down 1.4 percent in September compared to a usual decline of 0.7 percent the previous 10 years. Seven of the supersectors showed employment change that was below the average for the previous 10 years, but only leisure and hospitality registered a change that reached the point of performing 1.0 percentage point below expectations. Financial activities and professional and business services showed positive monthly growth. On an annual basis the metro area showed a gain of 2,800. The majority of the annual growth came from educational and health services which showed an increase of 1,800. The other large gain was an additional 500 jobs in local government. In all, seven supersectors showed annual growth. Losses occurred in only two supersectors, the largest being a decline of 200 in information.

St. Cloud MSA

Employment for the St. Cloud MSA posted a monthly gain of 0.2 percent which is well short of the 1.5 percent average gain posted the previous 10 years for the metro area. Eight of 10 supersectors performed below expectations in September. The poorest results were in government where the monthly gain of 8.4 percent was well below the average gain of 11.6 percent the past 10 years. Leisure and hospitality and professional and business services also posted monthly growth that was nearly as far below expectations.  Over the past year the metro area showed a loss of 400. Six of the 10 supersectors showed declines but none was larger than -200. The only supersector showing a gain was government with a gain of 300, entirely from local government.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Fargo-Moorhead saw a monthly employment gain of 2.6 percent, an increase that was well within normal expectations. In general there were no dramatic changes for the month. Over the past year Fargo-Moorhead showed an increase of 2.4 percent. Private employment showed an increase of 2.7 percent. The strong monthly growth in government is uncertain until the fall seasonal educational build-up is completed in October. Employment growth often is shifted forward into September.

Grand Forks MSA

The 3.4 percent monthly increase in Grand Forks was the smallest September increase in the past decade.  There were several supersectors that posted weak results for the month including manufacturing, trade, transportation, and utilities, government, and mining, logging, and construction. Over the past year the metro area grew by 2.9 percent. Eight of 10 supersectors showed over-the-year gains. The private sector actually added 4.2 percent. Government lost -1.1 percent.

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