Regional Analysis

by Jerry Brown 
September 2011

Monthly analysis is based on unadjusted employment data.

Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA)

The Twin Cities saw a monthly employment increase that was much larger than usual as state workers who were laid off during July returned to work. This was evident in the 25.2 percent increase in state government employment for the month. Beyond the increase in government, several supersectors performed well enough for growth in total private employment to increase about 0.2 of a percentage point above expectations. Trade, transportation, and utilities led the growth with a sharp increase in wholesale trade as well as moderately strong growth in retail trade. Other areas contributing to the positive result were mining, logging, and construction; professional, scientific, and business services; administrative and support services; and educational and health services. The yearly rate of growth bounced back to post an increase measuring 1.5 percent. This was below the state rate of 1.7 percent. Seven of the 10 supersectors showed gains led by education and health, up 7,100. Professional and business services added 6,900 with sizeable gains in its major components. Trade, transportation, and utilities was up 5,400 with nearly half the increase in transportation and warehousing.

Duluth-Superior MSA

In addition to the expected monthly gains from the return of state employees, private-sector growth was up 0.6 percent, the best August monthly gain since 2001. Leading private sector growth was trade, transportation, and utilities, up 0.8 percent compared to an average change of 0.2 percent the previous 10 years. Much of the growth was in wholesale trade. Other areas with substantial strength included professional and business services, manufacturing, and financial activities. Over the past year the MSA increased 2.3 percent according to estimates. The main areas of growth included educational and health services; trade, transportation, and utilities; and leisure and hospitality with gains of 1,400, 1,200, and 1,000 respectively. The largest loss was in government, caused by declines in local and federal government.

Rochester MSA

Rochester saw a monthly increase of 0.2 percent. While the return of state government employees increased employment by a few hundred, growth in the private sector was somewhat soft in August. The private sector lost 0.2 percent for the month, compared to a usual gain of 0.2 percent for the month. Professional and business services, education and health care, and leisure and hospitality all showed some weakening for the month. Over the past year the MSA was up 2.7 percent. For the most part annual growth came in educational and health services where 1,700 jobs were added. Leisure and hospitality and trade, transportation, and utilities were both up 400. Only three supersectors saw job declines, none greater than 100.

St. Cloud MSA

St. Cloud employment was up 0.8 percent for the month. The boost in growth from returning state workers and from gains in manufacturing were countered by weakness in private services. Private services experienced average growth, up 0.2 percent for the month of August, a weak rate of growth compared to an average gain of 1.4 percent for the previous 10 years. Educational and health services and leisure and hospitality were the areas that contributed the most to the weaker monthly results in private services. Compared to last year, the MSA showed essentially no change in employment. The only area that changed by more than 100 was leisure and hospitality with a gain of 200. All of the other areas showed small gains or losses.

Fargo-Moorhead MSA

Employment was down 0.2 percent, somewhat worse results than expected based on history. Leisure and hospitality contributed to the weaker results, but in general the monthly results were a mixed bag with no clear story for the month. Compared to last year Fargo-Moorhead was up 2,500 with nearly all of the areas showing moderate to strong growth. Only leisure and hospitality and information showed losses over the past year.  Professional and business services and trade, transportation, and utilities showed the most growth, up 1,000 and 600 respectively.

Grand Forks MSA

The monthly employment change in Grand Forks measured 0.3 percent which is not markedly different from historic expectations. Leisure and hospitality and educational and health services showed monthly growth a bit below expectations. Compared to last year the MSA was up 1,700. Only government and information supersectors showed losses. The largest gains were in trade, transportation, and utilities, up 600, and in mining, logging, and construction, up 400.   

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